Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 12 2025 01:03:50

ACUS01 KWNS 120103
SWODY1
SPC AC 120102

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
A few widely spaced strong to severe storms remain possible from
western Colorado into eastern Montana and the western Dakotas.
Isolated hail or strong gusts are possible.

....Discussion...
Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening from the Canadian
border southward across the Rockies, beneath moderate southwest flow
aloft. 00Z soundings from GJT to GGW show moderately steep lapse
rates, with 500 to 1500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given little height falls
overnight, most of these storms should diminish after sunset.

Farther east across the northern High Plains, stronger instability
exists with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg from UNR to BIS. However,
minimal capping does exist. Conditionally, the environment supports
large hail, though there is little focusing mechanism for any
concentrated risk areas. As such, the Slight Risk has been removed,
due to expected isolated nature of the cells.

...Jewell.. 09/12/2025

$$

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