Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2060
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 11 2025 20:47:48

ACUS11 KWNS 112047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112047=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-112245-

Mesoscale Discussion 2060
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Areas affected...Parts of western SD/NE...far eastern WY...northeast
CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 112047Z - 112245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon and
evening.

DISCUSSION...Storm development is underway this afternoon across
parts of the CO Front Range into southeast WY. Farther north, strong
heating has occurred from parts of the NE Panhandle into western SD.
The strongest instability resides across parts of western SD, where
the 18Z UNR sounding (modified for recent surface observations)
depicts steep tropospheric lapse rates and MLCAPE above 2000 J/kg.
Effective shear of 30-40 kt across this area is favorable for
organized convection, though coverage of storms remains somewhat
uncertain in the absence of stronger large-scale ascent. Any storm
that can mature within this environment could pose a threat for both
severe hail and wind, given the favorable lapse rates.=20

Farther south, there is some potential for ongoing convection to
intensify as it moves eastward into a somewhat more moist and
unstable environment across northeast CO into the NE Panhandle,
though MLCINH also increases with eastward extent. Sufficient
deep-layer shear will support some potential for organized storms,
including potential for isolated severe hail/wind.

...Dean/Guyer.. 09/11/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6LjL1bx7DcO8ewqixgu6uXlxN1-lJH3sqXoKcSEc6CPQq49peHttozmt3v-wNt8bVFsr3-VXm=
piwtCMvmMj_Gry2AlA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41020485 44830410 45740373 45780268 45820193 44360178
            42660196 41670209 41040223 40040284 39630341 39580374
            39540424 39640462 40160471 41020485=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.