Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 10 2025 23:46:15

AWUS01 KWNH 102346
FFGMPD
IDZ000-ORZ000-110540-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1071...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
745 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025

Corrected for Typo in Discussion

Areas affected...Parts of Central/Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102340Z - 110540Z

SUMMARY...Numerous showers and thunderstorms capable of 1"/hr
rainfall rates across central/eastern Oregon and far western Idaho
this evening may be slow-moving at times and could pose the threat
for isolated flash flooding. This is primarily a concern over burn
scars.

DISCUSSION...A closed low over northern California evident on
GOES-West satellite imagery this afternoon continues to usher
southerly flow on the eastern periphery before upper flow becomes
more easterly and convergent near eastern and central Oregon.
Meanwhile, a southerly 300mb jet across the central Great Basin
also places eastern OR/western ID in the favorable left-exit
region and provides additional upper lift for thunderstorm
development and maintenance through early tonight. PW values range
from 0.8-0.9" per SPC's mesoanalysis, which is +2.0 standard
deviations above the climatological average for this part of the
country. Additionally, SBCAPE values of 1,000-1,500 J/kg are
sufficient for strong updrafts to tap into the available moisture.

Current MRMS estimates for hourly rates are up to 1" near the John
Day Highlands and 18Z HREF probabilities for over 1"/hr totals
continue to exceed 20% until around 02Z. These rates when combined
with coverage of thunderstorms could lead to flash flooding for at
least a few additional hours should heavy rainfall overlap with
the several sensitive burn scars across the region.

Snell

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7be0Pbm6fH-fgJpB4gspljXV0quXMyItl4hE2nBrRSgVXv2Er_CsfEOoDsoRPWQ8435l=
FQSSF5FPoYJdDIa1XLbyNDs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...MFR...PDT...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON   45151847 45111767 44851708 44161670 43271654=20
            42591663 42251706 42231760 42451794 43081834=20
            43241844 43561918 43392023 43392094 43642123=20
            44202091 44771975=20

=3D =3D =3D
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