Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2058
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 10 2025 20:49:36

ACUS11 KWNS 102049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102049=20
NVZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-102245-

Mesoscale Discussion 2058
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025

Areas affected...Parts of north-central NV into southwest ID and
extreme southeast OR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 102049Z - 102245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms may develop by late afternoon.
Localized strong to severe gusts and small to near-severe hail are
possible.

DISCUSSION...Storms are beginning to develop across parts of
north-central NV this afternoon, to the east of a mid/upper-level
cyclone centered over northern CA. Storm coverage is expected to
increase through late afternoon, as a midlevel vorticity maximum
moves across the Great Basin, along the eastern periphery of the
upper cyclone. Low-level moisture is generally limited across the
region, but steep midlevel lapse rates and rather cold temperatures
aloft will support MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg in areas where heating
continues through late afternoon. Modestly enhanced midlevel flow to
the east of the upper cyclone will support a gradual increase in
effective shear into the 25-35 kt range, sufficient for at least
transient storm organization.=20

While storm intensity will be tempered by the modest buoyancy, steep
low-level lapse rates will support a threat of strong to locally
severe gusts, especially if any clustering and outflow consolidation
can evolve with time. Small to near-severe hail also cannot be ruled
out, given the generally cool temperature profiles and favorable
lapse rates.

...Dean/Guyer.. 09/10/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7uBvZ6aE5yfVEEPDV6zGPdct8F5JmKeva7laOh74hCBHbByNmRq_38UTtFQZc9neznUmRVLQi=
mssCUnIv_Ti8fY0Q0c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...REV...

LAT...LON   41141578 39521614 39171710 39471759 40961732 42761757
            43241704 43141630 42841585 42461565 41851565 41141578=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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