Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 10 2025 05:04:21

ACUS01 KWNS 100504
SWODY1
SPC AC 100502

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
Northwest and northern Rockies with more isolated storms over the
High Plains. Severe potential is generally low.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low will remain nearly stationary over the western states
with a large area of cyclonic flow aloft from southern CA into the
eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. Meanwhile, another broad
but weaker upper trough will affect the eastern states with cool air
aloft extending from the MS Valley into the Northeast. Between these
two troughs, an upper ridge will exist over the Plains, with upper
high over western TX.

At the surface, high pressure will extend southward across the Great
Lakes and into much of the East, resulting in stable conditions.
Weak southerly winds across the Plains will maintain pockets of 50s
and low 60s F dewpoints, with greater moisture along the TX Coast.

Early day storms are likely to be ongoing over KS into northern OK,
but are expected to dwindle during the day. A few strong wind gusts
cannot be ruled out prior to this activity weakening. Otherwise, a
few isolated cells may occur from northeast NM into eastern WY
during the late afternoon with heating and weak upslope flow.
Warming aloft is expected to mitigate overall potential.

Elsewhere, scattered afternoon storms will occur beneath the upper
trough from northern NV into OR and western ID, and a few of these
storms could produce at least small hail given such cool
temperatures aloft and modest deep-layer shear.

...Jewell/Wendt.. 09/10/2025

$$

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