Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2056
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 10 2025 00:26:58

ACUS11 KWNS 100026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100026=20
KSZ000-COZ000-100230-

Mesoscale Discussion 2056
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025

Areas affected...Central High Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609...

Valid 100026Z - 100230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609
continues.

SUMMARY...Hail threat is expected to persist with storms this
evening, along with some wind risk.

DISCUSSION...Isolated strong-severe thunderstorms are shifting
slowly southeast across the central High Plains this evening. Strong
boundary-layer heating has proven instrumental in this activity
attaining severe levels as lapse rates are seasonally steep across
this region. However, over the next few hours, nocturnal cooling
will lead to increasing CINH and surface-based updrafts should being
to struggle as they decouple from the boundary layer. 00z sounding
from DDC exhibits this trend with weak inhibition noted around 1km.
Even so, LLJ is forecast to increase after sunset and this should
aid one or more elevated thunderstorm clusters that should propagate
across western KS. Hail is the primary concern with this activity.

...Darrow.. 09/10/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_JWOaTpHgxdp5GXPw0S22EGChunDRVj7XO1IPOk9E-sfGFfZDZDSGe47deTN0n6Xg5MPbHLAG=
ThjMhCZVMSfZL4S2XI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   40000304 39380072 37350072 37980304 40000304=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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