Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Sep 09 2025 17:31:43 ACUS02 KWNS 091731 SWODY2 SPC AC 091730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies with more isolated storms over the High Plains Wednesday. A stronger storm or two is possible, but severe potential is overall low. ....Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will strengthen across the central CONUS on Wednesday with a trough across the West Coast and a deepening trough in the Great Lakes. Surface high pressure will dominate much of the eastern CONUS with low pressure across the Great Basin and weak lee troughing across the High Plains. ....Discussion... A dry, continental airmass will keep convection suppressed across much of the eastern CONUS. Widespread convection is anticipated across the Northwest, northern Great Basin, and the Southwest into the Central Rockies in the diffluent region ahead of the mid-level trough. These storms will be somewhat dry in nature with PWAT values around 0.5 to 0.75 inches and steep low-level lapse rates. Therefore, a few stronger downbursts are possible with isolated severe wind gusts. However, relatively weak instability should limit the overall severe potential across the west. Greater instability will exist across the Plains, but building heights aloft will likely keep storm coverage somewhat isolated. A remnant MCS from Day 1 convection across western Kansas may persist into the morning hours, but should be weakening through the morning as it moves east of the low-level jet axis. Some guidance, such as the NAM, shows significant augmentation of the mid-level height field which could suppress heights enough for isolated thunderstorm activity near the remnant outflow/MCV from morning convection on Wednesday afternoon. However, this scenario is uncertain, and even if it does occur, shear will likely be relatively weak and therefore, any severe threat should be isolated. ...Bentley.. 09/09/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .