Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 09 2025 16:23:14

ACUS01 KWNS 091623
SWODY1
SPC AC 091621

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS...

....SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible over the central and
southern High Plains late this afternoon and evening.

....Central and Southern High Plains...
The upper ridge axis will remain over the Rockies today, with
northwest flow aloft across the Plains states.  High-based
thunderstorms are expected to develop off the high terrain of
central CO and northern NM by mid-afternoon, while isolated cells
form over a remnant boundary over eastern CO/western KS.  Backed
low-level winds, steep low and mid-level lapse rates, and CAPE
values ranging from 1000-2500 J/kg will promote a risk of a few
severe storms through the afternoon.  Large hail appears to be the
main concern, with gusty/damaging winds also possible in the
strongest cells.  Activity may persist through much of the evening
as it progresses eastward into an increasingly moist boundary layer
air mass.  12z CAMs show a consistent signal of multiple rounds of
storms affecting parts of eastern CO/western KS, so have added a
small SLGT risk for this region.

...Hart/Weinman.. 09/09/2025

$$

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