Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2052
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 09 2025 05:43:40

ACUS11 KWNS 090543
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090543=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-090815-

Mesoscale Discussion 2052
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025

Areas affected...Southern Nebraska...Northern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 090543Z - 090815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail threat may continue for a couple
more hours in parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. The
threat should be too marginal for watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor
imagery over the central Plains. Large-scale ascent associated with
this feature is supporting isolated thunderstorm development over
parts of south-central Nebraska. This activity is located along the
eastern edge of a north-to-south axis of moderate instability,
located from central Nebraska into western Kansas. Short-term model
forecasts suggest the storms will continue to persist over the next
couple of hours and will move south-southeastward into north-central
Kansas. These cells are elevated due to a sharp low-level
temperature inversion, evident on RAP forecast soundings. The
WSR-88D VWP at Hastings suggests that effective shear around 30
knots. This, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will support
an isolated large hail threat. The threat could persist for a couple
more hours.

...Broyles/Smith.. 09/09/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4HSIXWLv0nmCgXC4IYIFsbK8wLhzhBxwgDpKrQ7KS6JOou1V6aGiGCvj5n9qqdJQF5QRbP3Kr=
z4lCzlTv097sZ-KZd4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39089781 39339732 39759732 40369757 40719788 40969823
            41039893 40849944 40439954 39899935 39329891 39129858
            39049822 39089781=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.