Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Sep 09 2025 01:10:50 AWUS01 KWNH 090110 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-090600- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1066 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 909 PM EDT Mon Sep 08 2025 Areas affected...northwesten OK into the eastern TX Panhandle Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 090106Z - 090600Z SUMMARY...Localized flash flood potential will exist from northwestern OK into the eastern TX Panhandle through 06Z. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches (locally higher) is expected with the threat potentially shifting slowly toward the south with time. DISCUSSION...Local radar imagery across northwestern OK into the northeastern TX Panhandle showed scattered thunderstorms with a couple of slow moving cells and cyclic supercells resulting in localized flash flooding. Surface observations from 01Z showed a few cells from northern OK into southwestern KS were along an outflow boundary related to earlier thunderstorms that moved through southern KS/northern OK. Meanwhile, an new cold pool was forming due to expanding convection from northwestern OK into the northeastern TX Panhandle. As the low level jet increases overnight, with RAP forecasts showing 850 mb wind speeds up to ~40 kt by 06Z, scattered thunderstorms or a small convective cluster may pose a flash flood threat with potential propagation toward the south into the low level inflow. With mean cell motions from the WNW to N, there will be the possibility for training along the western flank of the potential MCS if organization should develop and advance southward following Corfidi Vectors. While moisture is modest/average for early September, there is ample instability (2000 to 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE via AMA and DDC 00Z soundings) with steep mid-level lapse rates which should maintain sufficient CAPE well into the early part of the overnight. While increasing convective inhibition is a concern, ascent along the developing/advancing cold pool could be enough to overcome capping to allow at least a localized flash flood threat to maintain over the next few hours. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6b6m6rm8G1bCUqM_UiVW-xs5RBK6yLEsPJBz8VAFZbq5oz9WPRxWewI9ogNctO3Nyq5s= T5dYERj2wRRa2AwFZfwIS8I$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...LUB...OUN... ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 37000045 36949921 35969934 35329947 34409961=20 33950024 34110148 34680186 36280150=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .