Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 08 2025 21:47:10

AWUS01 KWNH 082147
FFGMPD
FLZ000-090100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1064
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
546 PM EDT Mon Sep 08 2025

Areas affected...southeastern FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082144Z - 090100Z

Summary...Intense hourly rainfall of 2-4 inches will continue to
be possible across the urban corridor of southeastern FL for
another 2-3 hours. Flash flooding will be possible.

Discussion...MRMS reflectivity from 2130Z continued to show areas
of thunderstorms over southeastern FL where 21Z SPC mesoanalysis
data showed MLCAPE of 1000 to 2000+ J/kg and PWATs of 2.0 to 2.2+
inches. Cells were disorganized but very slow moving with MRMS and
gauge data showing hourly rainfall in the 2-4 inch range and
15-minute rainfall of 1 to 1.5 inches over eastern Palm Beach,
Broward and Miami-Dade counties since 19Z.

While the Miami-metro has already picked up 2-4 inches, and
rain-cooled air has settled into the region, high surface
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s along the eastern Peninsula may
be limiting low level convective inhibition, potentially allowing
for additional convection later this evening. Another round of
heavy rainfall may impact portions of the Miami/Fort Lauderdale
metro over the next couple of hours as mean westerly flow may
support translation and/or additional development near/ahead of an
inland cluster of thunderstorms over southern Palm Beach into
western Broward counties. Meanwhile, ongoing cells farther up the
coast may lead to an isolated/urban flash flood threat within the
next 2-3 hours, before cells likely weaken after sunset.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_dbVeJ5TgSHQvV2dtteXPk3NdAqS_RXdQhsfbtnUhwbPJLoliorIpMSyBIXs15XS7rzC=
2O1OPOGCscuW-he5BwVhe-A$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   26848034 26817996 26347984 25837998 25448024=20
            25428054 25618066 26138058=20

=3D =3D =3D
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