Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Sep 08 2025 21:21:08 AWUS01 KWNH 082121 FFGMPD OKZ000-KSZ000-090100- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1063 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 520 PM EDT Mon Sep 08 2025 Areas affected...south-central to southeastern KS and northern OK Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 082119Z - 090100Z Summary...Areas of flash flooding will remain possible from portions of south-central to southeastern KS and northern OK over the next 3-4 hours. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches (locally higher) will be possible with potential near term impacts in the Wichita metro area within the next hour. Discussion...A long-lived MCS over east-central KS has been responsible for MRMS-derived rainfall totals up to 12 inches in a north-south axis to the west of Salina. As of 2045Z, this relatively compact system was moving south-southeastward, with an embedded MCV near Emporia, but with the heaviest rainfall rates were occurring on the west side of the complex along an instability gradient that was oriented NNE to SSW (MUCAPE up to 1500 J/kg). Meanwhile, MUCAPE values over eastern KS were near zero, coinciding with stratiform rain and non-hazardous rainfall intensities. Thunderstorms were elevated in nature, rooted in the 800-700 mb layer per RAP analysis soundings over the region with elevated convergence in this layer supporting continued pockets of hourly rainfall between 1 and 2 inches (locally higher). As the MCV continues to follow the northwesterly flow aloft toward southwestern MO, the axis of elevated convergence helping to support the continued high rainfall rates will translate southeastward, at the edge of the elevated instability axis. It is unclear if possible weakening of the convergence axis (per short term RAP forecasts) and/or movement of the convergence axis into weaker instability will occur, thereby weakening rainfall rates, but cloud tops continue to show bursts of cooling on infrared satellite imagery, suggestive of the flash flood threat continuing for at least another 1-2 hours. While a southeastward translation of forcing will shift the complex away from the stronger 850 mb jet axis (25-35 kt) over central KS, sufficient strength of the low level flow will likely maintain over the I-35 corridor to support some backbuilding and training of cells as heavy rain advances toward the S to SSE. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches is expected to continue a flash flood threat, especially into the Wichita metro area in the next hour along with other locations along the I-35 corridor into northern OK through 01Z. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6XB2XUCGvLiDOsiHj5LEPgmBhvDo_PyyC21vialfBksdMEXpxT6HZ2jQN6LoCDGF2j19= ZXjhrXaD7kclMjrAuwPvivw$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TOP...TSA... ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 38929791 38889751 38499675 37979649 37239611=20 36569606 36219624 36029720 36289853 37369896=20 38189828 38779814=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .