Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Sep 08 2025 19:59:40 ACUS01 KWNS 081959 SWODY1 SPC AC 081958 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Sep 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ....SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and gusty winds are forecast over portions of southwestern Kansas, northwest Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle late this afternoon into the evening. ....20Z Update... No changes were made to the Day 1 Outlook with this update. Both timing of the severe risk and storm coverage/evolution remain uncertain in the southern Plains, given weak/minimal large-scale forcing and only subtle zones of mesoscale lift. The latest surface analysis shows a weak surface boundary/wind shift extending from far southeast CO south-southwestward across the western OK Panhandle into the far northwestern TX Panhandle. This boundary may move slowly southeastward this evening and aid in isolated thunderstorm development as the low-level jet strengthens. Isolated storms could also form in response to differential heating along the southern edge of outflow moving southward across southwest KS. Regardless, a long/mostly straight hodograph (around 40 kt of effective shear) and moderate surface-based buoyancy will conditionally support splitting supercells with a risk of large hail and locally severe gusts. ...Weinman.. 09/08/2025 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Mon Sep 08 2025/ ....TX/OK/KS... Northwest flow persists over the Plains states today, with a shortwave trough progressing slowly southeastward across region. This feature has resulted in overnight and continuing clouds/convection from northeast KS into the eastern TX panhandle. These storms have occasionally posed a risk of severe hail. As this activity drifts eastward this afternoon, strong heating on the western flank of the clouds, along with a weak residual boundary over southwest KS/northwest OK, could provide the focus for isolated supercell thunderstorms. 12z model guidance varies considerably on the coverage of storms, lending uncertainty to the overall threat. However, forecast soundings show ample uncapped CAPE and sufficient low/deep layer shear for rotating storms capable of large hail. Therefore have made very few changes to the ongoing outlook. ....MN... Strong heating will occur this afternoon across the eastern Dakotas and central MN, where a plume of 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE will develop. Model guidance continues to decrease in overall coverage of convection over western MN, and forecast soundings suggest a cap and weak forcing are contributing to this trend. For these reasons, have trimmed the southwest portion of the MRGL. A strong storm or two capable of hail remains possible over central/northeast MN this evening or tonight. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .