Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Sep 08 2025 17:28:36 ACUS02 KWNS 081728 SWODY2 SPC AC 081726 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Mon Sep 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over the central and southern High Plains Tuesday. ....Synopsis... A broad upper-level low will remain across the Pacific Northwest on D2/Tuesday, with ridging across the Rockies in the central US. Embedded mid-level disturbances cresting the ridge will bring west to northwesterly flow across the Rockies into the Plains, promoting strengthening of the lee trough and development of weak low pressure across eastern Colorado. Weak forcing from the low/lee trough will support thunderstorm development across the Central and Southern High Plains, with a few strong to severe storms possible across western Kansas southward to the Texas Panhandle. ....Central and Southern High Plains... Overall forcing for ascent will remain weak across the central/southern high Plains beneath the upper ridge Tuesday. Mid-level flow will be increasing through the day, with a strengthening southerly low-level jet progged to develop by late afternoon/evening. Given the ridging aloft and weak forcing there is some uncertainty to how much convection can develop and be sustained. Nonetheless, CAMs do suggest some isolated to scattered convection are possible across the high terrain in Colorado/Wyoming and into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles by late afternoon. Daytime heating of a seasonably moist air mass should yield MLCAPE around 1000-2500 J/kg. Deep layer shear around 30-35 kts will increase through the evening with the low-level jet, with elongated straight hodographs extending across much of western Kansas into the OK/TX Panhandles. Sufficient deep layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates overspreading this region could support potential for supercells, with a conditional risk for large to very large hail and damaging wind should a storm be able to sustain. Given some uncertainty on coverage and sustained supercells, a Marginal Risk was maintained and extended eastward across more of western Oklahoma. ....Upper Midwest... A boundary extending from central Iowa into the Dakotas will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. The air mass south of this feature will be modestly sheared/unstable. Thunderstorm development appears to be mainly along and on the cool side of this boundary capable of small hail and gusty winds. Within this region, a stronger storm or two may develop but the overall severe threat appears low. ...Thornton.. 09/08/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .