Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 08 2025 16:57:06

AWUS01 KWNH 081656
FFGMPD
KSZ000-082100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1062
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1255 PM EDT Mon Sep 08 2025

Areas affected...Central Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 081654Z - 082100Z

Summary...Persistent heavy thunderstorms will continue to
redevelop over a narrow north-to south corridor of central Kansas
into this afternoon. Rain rates up to 2.5"/hr should continue with
additional rainfall of 2-5" and storm total rainfall exceeding 12"
possible. Flash flooding with localized considerable impacts
should persist before finally easing later this afternoon.

Discussion...The narrow north-south oriented axis of repeating
heavy thunderstorms persists across I-70 west from Salina. The
slow moving synoptic pattern of an upper ridge axis over the
central Rockies and surface high pressure centered over the Great
Lakes is maintaining northwesterly flow over southwesterly low
level flow over the central Plain. Moist return flow up the Plains
with a low level veering wind profile of southerly at the surface
and 20-30kt 850 SWly flow has maintained slow storm motions and
upwind propagation/redevelopment allowing for repeating heavy rain
over the same axis. This axis has expanded south, into the low
level flow, over the past few hours.

Little change in this flow pattern is expected from the RAP until
around 20Z with some mid-level veering which may dislodge this
particularly persistent heavy rain axis.

PW is now 1.5" (a little above normal) with this continued influx.
The static nature of the pattern is also attributed to the
instability gradient which has changed little over the past four
hours with sufficent 1000 J/kg upstream quickly drops off to the
east (west of Manhattan, KS).

CAM guidance continues to struggle with this activity with the
HRRR and RRFS still trying to shift it east. Once the mid levels
veer more westerly then that should take place, making for mainly
beneficial rain to areas east of this hard hit axis. Until then,
considerable flash flooding will continue with localized totals
reaching or exceeding 12".

Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7fpxNVgyR9riDgyYdwqwgOs0MZV0Ks06Cp69irCDtSH8Vo_ulh79hLJPCz0eF17Xjcuq=
CME5R8VeQFIEoGheglw3Ow8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   39449828 39399778 39049732 38539738 38089759=20
            37719790 37869855 38389855 39049833=20

=3D =3D =3D
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