Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 08 2025 16:14:36

ACUS01 KWNS 081614
SWODY1
SPC AC 081613

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Mon Sep 08 2025

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE....

....SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and gusty winds are forecast over portions of
southwestern Kansas, northwest Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle
late this afternoon into the evening.

....TX/OK/KS...
Northwest flow persists over the Plains states today, with a
shortwave trough progressing slowly southeastward across region.
This feature has resulted in overnight and continuing
clouds/convection from northeast KS into the eastern TX panhandle.
These storms have occasionally posed a risk of severe hail.  As this
activity drifts eastward this afternoon, strong heating on the
western flank of the clouds, along with a weak residual boundary
over southwest KS/northwest OK, could provide the focus for isolated
supercell thunderstorms.  12z model guidance varies considerably on
the coverage of storms, lending uncertainty to the overall threat.
However, forecast soundings show ample uncapped CAPE and sufficient
low/deep layer shear for rotating storms capable of large hail.
Therefore have made very few changes to the ongoing outlook.

....MN...
Strong heating will occur this afternoon across the eastern Dakotas
and central MN, where a plume of 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE will
develop.  Model guidance continues to decrease in overall coverage
of convection over western MN, and forecast soundings suggest a cap
and weak forcing are contributing to this trend.  For these reasons,
have trimmed the southwest portion of the MRGL.  A strong storm or
two capable of hail remains possible over central/northeast MN this
evening or tonight.

...Hart/Weinman.. 09/08/2025

$$

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