Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2047
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 07 2025 21:58:31

ACUS11 KWNS 072158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072157=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-080000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2047
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025

Areas affected...the south-central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 072157Z - 080000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and localized severe gusts are
possible through mid-evening across mainly the northeast New Mexico
and southeast Colorado portion of the south-central High Plains.

DISCUSSION...Initial discrete cells have increased off the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains and Raton Mesa vicinity of northeast NM and in a
separate southwest/northeast-oriented corridor from Pueblo to
Lincoln County, CO. Towering Cu and incipient Cb development is also
underway along a surface trough over southeast CO, northeastward
from the NM convection. With a west to east gradient of surface dew
points from the mid 50s to low 60s out ahead of the Raton
Mesa/southeast CO activity, the best chance for sporadic severe
hail/wind gusts may be in this corridor where a moderate combination
of buoyancy/deep-layer shear persists longest. Convection farther
north will at least have a near-term threat for isolated severe but
should wane in a few hours, especially if sustained development
occurs to its southeast.

...Grams/Mosier.. 09/07/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7NMQ-zuJj6l8i8hmBTn7sUFnS5JLrvgY6eENCshBlNtSEZmeFMvrlGmlCvctXyxzK2hKvP44x=
zUCo-b8Hi1nVMaOWmw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36120511 36790428 37250401 37700408 38290441 38810442
            39110404 39400327 39390252 38450179 37990164 37240191
            36540245 35430369 35390486 36120511=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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