Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 07 2025 19:34:31

ACUS01 KWNS 071934
SWODY1
SPC AC 071932

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail/wind
gusts are possible across portions of the central and southern High
Plains late this afternoon and evening.

....20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required.
Latest convective trends show weak, high-based convection developing
from southern WY into southern CO within the higher terrain.
However, this activity has largely been transient and outflow
dominant. This trend will likely continue until convection can
either migrate into or develop within a low-level moisture plume
extending from the OK/TX Panhandles into eastern CO/western KS where
MLCAPE is more supportive of robust convection. Latest guidance
continues to suggest that the best convective environment will
remain across this region through the evening hours as isolated to
widely scattered convection spreads east. See the previous
discussion for additional details.

...Moore.. 09/07/2025

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025/

....Central and Southern High Plains...
An upper ridge axis is present today over the Rockies, with
northwest flow aloft across the high Plains states.  A weak
shortwave trough will top the ridge axis over CO and spread into the
central Plains later today.  Weak lift and mid-level moisture
associated with this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm
development by mid-afternoon off the foothills and mountains of
central CO.  The activity will propagate southeastward into a moist
and moderately unstable air mass over parts of CO/KS/NM and the
TX/OK Panhandles, where dewpoints in the 50s will yield MLCAPE
values around 2000 J/kg.  Winds below 6km are rather weak, which
should limit convective organization.  However, steep mid-level
lapse rates and strong winds in the upper levels may result in
isolated supercell structures capable of hail.  Morning visible
satellite imagery suggests sufficient cloud cover to limit afternoon
heating somewhat.  This may tend to decrease the wind damage threat.

$$

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