Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 07 2025 16:16:00

ACUS01 KWNS 071615
SWODY1
SPC AC 071614

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail/wind
gusts are possible across portions of the central and southern High
Plains late this afternoon and evening.

....Central and Southern High Plains...
An upper ridge axis is present today over the Rockies, with
northwest flow aloft across the high Plains states.  A weak
shortwave trough will top the ridge axis over CO and spread into the
central Plains later today.  Weak lift and mid-level moisture
associated with this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm
development by mid-afternoon off the foothills and mountains of
central CO.  The activity will propagate southeastward into a moist
and moderately unstable air mass over parts of CO/KS/NM and the
TX/OK Panhandles, where dewpoints in the 50s will yield MLCAPE
values around 2000 J/kg.  Winds below 6km are rather weak, which
should limit convective organization.  However, steep mid-level
lapse rates and strong winds in the upper levels may result in
isolated supercell structures capable of hail.  Morning visible
satellite imagery suggests sufficient cloud cover to limit afternoon
heating somewhat.  This may tend to decrease the wind damage threat.

...Hart/Weinman.. 09/07/2025

$$

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