Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 07 2025 12:11:00

ACUS01 KWNS 071210
SWODY1
SPC AC 071209

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0709 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
A few stronger thunderstorms capable of marginally severe wind
gusts/hail are possible across portions of the central and southern
High Plains late this afternoon through the early evening.

....Central/Southern High Plains...
Morning water-vapor imagery shows a low/trough over the eastern
Pacific with a downstream ridge over the Rockies.  A couple of weak
disturbances are cresting the ridge and may aid in storm development
later this afternoon/evening over the central High Plains later
today.

In the low levels, a lee trough and an associated moisture plume
over the High Plains will provide a focus for isolated to widely
scattered storms.  Strong heating over the High Plains will
contribute to weak to moderate buoyancy by late afternoon.
South-southeasterly low-level winds veering to around 20-kt
northwesterly mid-level flow will support some modest updraft
organization.  The stronger storms may yield an isolated severe-hail
(diameter 1.5 inches or less) and wind-gust (55-65 mph) threat.  A
small cluster or two is expected to evolve during the evening
coincident with an increase in the LLJ.  This activity will likely
move east-southeast into western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles, where
a cooling boundary layer and increasing CINH will act to limit
severe potential by mid-late evening.

...Smith/Broyles.. 09/07/2025

$$

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