Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 07 2025 05:20:58

ACUS01 KWNS 070520
SWODY1
SPC AC 070519

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Some wind and hail risk is expected with thunderstorms across
portions of the central and southern High Plains.

....Central/Southern High Plains...

A few notable disturbances will top the western U.S. ridge and dig
southeast toward the central High Plains later today. Modest
midlevel flow will be noted across this region, and a LLJ is
expected to respond and increase from the TX Panhandle across
western KS during the evening. Latest model guidance depicts strong
boundary-layer heating across eastern NM/CO which should allow
surface temperatures to warm into the lower 80s. Forecast soundings
suggest convective temperatures will be breached by 22z and steep
low-level lapse rates will prove beneficial for scattered
thunderstorm development by late afternoon. 0-6km bulk shear is
expected to be on the order of 35kt, so a few organized updrafts may
take on supercell characteristics. If so, isolated hail and gusty
winds are possible. Increasing LLJ after sunset favors this activity
spreading southeast toward western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles.

...Darrow/Squitieri.. 09/07/2025

$$

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