Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2045
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 06 2025 19:49:54

ACUS11 KWNS 061949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061949=20
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-062115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2045
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Areas affected...CT/RI into parts of MA...southern/eastern
NH...western/central ME

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 607...

Valid 061949Z - 062115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 607
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for damaging wind and possibly a tornado or two
will spread eastward into late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A supercell that earlier developed over southeast NY
has evolved into a small bowing segment (still with supercell
characteristics) across southwest MA, and has a history of producing
wind damage, and also a 56 kt gust near Westfield, MA (KBAF). 2-hour
pressure falls are relatively maximized near/east of this storm, and
it will likely persist as it moves quickly eastward across a
moderately buoyant and favorably sheared environment. Damaging winds
will likely be the primary hazard, though a brief tornado or two
will be possible, given the presence of modestly curved low-level
hodographs (with effective SRH in excess of 150 m2/s2 per VWPs from
KGYX and KBOX).=20

Elsewhere from CT into southeast NH/southwest ME, storm coverage has
substantially increased over the last hour, along/ahead of a
eastward-moving cold front. Evolution into a larger-scale QLCS
appears to be underway, with a damaging-wind threat expected to
spread eastward into late afternoon. With favorable low-level and
deep-layer shear in place, some tornado potential cannot be ruled
out within any embedded supercells, as well as with any stronger
discrete cells that can be maintained ahead of the primary
convective line. Isolated hail potential will also continue with any
persistent supercell structures.

...Dean.. 09/06/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6h0tfab87yyZWqmXnzUbxIOMpWOlBr_A7QxNFOV-H2Y7MQAOcW7zh_10wMl2cm1EVa5p_Rge_=
O-ZWRmYsNwGBUYh83o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON   42547207 44187120 44867033 45516873 45566820 45286796
            44846827 44376900 44026998 43277058 42607056 42017061
            41347258 41217331 41627302 42547207=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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