Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 06 2025 19:06:24

ACUS03 KWNS 061906
SWODY3
SPC AC 061905

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain
low.

....Southern High Plains to Upper Midwest...

West to northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central
U.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough
oriented from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. A couple of
embedded shortwave impulses will migrate through the
west/northwesterly flow regime across the central/northern Plains to
the Upper Midwest. At the surface, modest surface low development
over the Dakotas and a surface trough oriented from the Upper MS
Valley into the southern High Plains, will result in modest
southerly return flow. This will transport low to mid 60s F
dewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor from western TX
into western portions of the central Plains and northeast into the
eastern Dakotas and MN.

Vertically veering winds will support marginal supercell wind
profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and
elongated hodographs. However, convective coverage is uncertain.
With southward extent into the central/southern Plains vicinity,
forcing will be weak. Potential early-day clouds and remnant
convection from the Day 2 period over parts of KS may limit
thunderstorm potential during the afternoon depending on airmass
recovery and potential outflow. Further north toward MN, vertical
shear will be stronger and forcing for ascent may be stronger as a
shortwave impulse drops southeast from the Canadian Prairies.
However, forecast soundings indicate a warm layer/capping between
850-700 mb. Isolated thunderstorms (some strong) could develop
anywhere along the surface trough given modest shear and 1000-2000
J/kg MLCAPE, and severe probabilities could be needed at some point.
However, concerns over storm coverage, capping and possible
influences from prior convection preclude probabilities at this
time.

...Leitman.. 09/06/2025

$$

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