Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2043
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 06 2025 17:27:52

ACUS11 KWNS 061727
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061727=20
VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-NCZ000-061930-

Mesoscale Discussion 2043
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern VA. southern MD...and=20
northern NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 061727Z - 061930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing
severe-thunderstorm potential this afternoon. The stronger storms
will be capable of producing damaging winds and isolated severe
hail. A watch is not currently expected, though trends are being
monitored.

DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cumulus is becoming increasingly
agitated along a prefrontal trough extending from central/eastern VA
into northern NC, and initial signs of convective initiation are
evident. Continued diurnal heating/destabilization amid lower 70s
dewpoints should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm
development over the next few hours. Despite poor midlevel lapse
rates, the warm/moist PBL will still yield moderate surface-based
buoyancy, which will favor gradual updraft intensification.
Additionally, around 35 kt of effective shear may promote loosely
organized cells/clusters, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts
and isolated/sporadic marginally severe hail. Current thinking is
that the severe threat will be too localized/marginal for a watch,
though trends are being monitored.

...Weinman/Hart.. 09/06/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5g0lQO4wl7cCFdEVvXtM6BEjRPLPBFWNtbiVUS_n0FbB039dXOIjyuCZ476hhL4HuBKLC6uIj=
tRP6SSpSGVgyUfghJc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   36707962 37807819 38887753 39127731 38967663 38577635
            36907696 36157807 35857875 35927934 36217971 36707962=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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