Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Sep 06 2025 17:17:24 ACUS02 KWNS 061717 SWODY2 SPC AC 061715 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low on Sunday. ....Central/Southern High Plains... An upper level ridge will build over the Rockies/Western U.S. during the day on Sunday, with some warming in mid/upper levels noted. Near/after 00z, a weak shortwave impulse is forecast to eject east from the central Rockies into the central Plains, resulting in modest height falls and some forcing for ascent into CO/NE/KS. At the surface, weak lee troughing will support southerly return flow, and a narrow corridor of 50s to near 60 F dewpoints is forecast from southwest NE into eastern CO and western KS, southward over far eastern NM, and western TX/OK. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain modest with RAP/NAM forecast soundings indicating 700-500 mb lapse rates around 6.5-7 C/km atop the modest boundary layer moisture. This will support generally weak MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg. Vertically veering wind profiles (southerly low-levels becoming northwesterly with height) will foster modest effective shear magnitudes around 25 kt. Isolated thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon into early evening within the modestly unstable/moist boundary layer near the surface trough. A low-level jet is forecast to increase during the evening, and may aid in sustaining thunderstorms despite a cooling boundary layer. A strong storm or two could produce small hail or gusty winds, but overall severe potential appears limited given a lack of stronger forcing/thermodynamic environment and concerns over limited storm coverage. ....Coastal Carolinas into southeast GA... Moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow will weaken with time and southward extent as the stronger upper shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Northeast lifts northeast through the period. At the surface, a very moist airmass will be in place ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. This will support MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg during the afternoon. Vertical shear also will remain limited, with weak flow through at least 700 mb evident in forecast soundings. Cloud cover and poor lapse rates will likely limit severe potential, but where stronger heating can occur, locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Leitman.. 09/06/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .