Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 06 2025 16:04:54

ACUS01 KWNS 061604
SWODY1
SPC AC 061603

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern
Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon.  The
primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind
damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two.

....The Mid Atlantic Region into New England...
A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region.
At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from
MD into eastern PA/NY and New England.  To the east of the boundary,
at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates
and destabilize the air mass.  Thunderstorms have already begun to
form along this zone, with intensification to scattered
strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon.  Mid-level lapse rates are
not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and
deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of
damaging wind gusts and some hail.  A tornado or two will also be
possible.  Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of
concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z.
Refer to MD #2042 for further details.

...Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025

$$

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