Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 06 2025 07:34:22

ACUS03 KWNS 060734
SWODY3
SPC AC 060733

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain
low.

....Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will shift eastward at the beginning of the
week. An upper-level trough will approach the West Coast. At the
surface, a high pressure system will remain in much of the CONUS
east of the Missouri River. With the approach of the western trough,
some modest mid-level flow enhancement will promote stronger lee
troughing in the High Plains. A very subtle, weak shortwave trough
is currently forecast to be in the central Plains early Monday and
move eastward.

....Parts of southern/central Plains...
With moisture return continuing on the western flank of the surface
high, there is some potential for storm development along the lee
trough. Potential will likely be highest in these areas as they have
the more favorable overlap of stronger surface heating and low-level
moisture. Mid-level northwesterly winds will not be overly strong,
but around 25-30 kts of effective shear can be expected. However,
large scale ascent will be weak. Furthermore, most guidance show
somewhat mild temperatures and at least some remaining MLCIN even
during the afternoon. If a storm were to form, it could be strong to
severe, but confidence in initiation remains rather low.

...Wendt.. 09/06/2025

$$

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