Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Sep 06 2025 05:37:20 ACUS01 KWNS 060537 SWODY1 SPC AC 060535 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into parts of southern New England. Isolated strong gusts are possible extending southward across the Piedmont. ....Northeastern U.S... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over eastern IA/southern WI, ejecting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will deamplify as it moves across Lower MI into southern ON by 18z and QC by 07/00z. Following this lead system, a secondary short-wave trough will eject across the OH Valley into western PA by early evening. Overall, modest 12hr height falls are forecast along the international border as 500mb flow/shear increases across most of the northern Mid Atlantic/New England. Primary concern for thunderstorm initiation later today will be a pronounced cold front that will surge across this region and off the Atlantic Coast by sunrise Sunday. By 18z the wind shift is expected to extend from upstate NY-eastern PA-western VA. Models suggest boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in destabilization for thunderstorm development along the cold front. Most CAMs suggest a marked increase in thunderstorms by 18z as convective temperatures are breached within a favored corridor of low-level convergence. Forecast soundings exhibit more than adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts, and gusty winds will likely be the primary concern, though some hail could be noted, along with perhaps a brief tornado or two across the higher latitudes. This activity will spread toward the Atlantic Coast during the evening where convection should gradually weaken as it encounters less buoyancy. ...Darrow/Squitieri.. 09/06/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .