Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 06 2025 03:38:23

AWUS01 KWNH 060338
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-060936-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1051
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1137 PM EDT Fri Sep 05 2025

Areas affected...southern/southeastern Nevada, far northwestern
Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060336Z - 060936Z

Summary...Flash flooding remains possible along a stalling
boundary in the discussion area through 09Z/3a MDT.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms were forming along a stalled
low-level boundary extending from just north of Beatty to just
north of Las Vegas to near Mesquite.  The downstream,
pre-convective airmass supporting storms is relatively moist and
unstable, with 1+ inch PW values and 1500 J/kg MLCAPE noted amid
8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates.  850mb flow fields (per SPC
mesoanalysis) continue to depict a slight enhancement to southerly
low-level flow (approaching 20 knots) perpendicular to the
low-level boundary, sustaining updrafts and heavy rainfall.  A few
spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates are occurring.  These rates exceed
local FFG across the region and are potentially contributing to
excessive runoff.

The overall pattern will evolve slowly through the night, with
sustained convergence expected to continue firing convection
through 09Z.  The slow movement and wetting nature of the storms
should continue to promote flash flood potential on at least an
isolated basis during that time.  Mesoscale/convective evolution
should result in small displacements in the boundary, and a drift
toward the Las Vegas metro and adjacent areas of far northwestern
Arizona cannot be ruled out.  Flash flooding is possible in each
of these areas, with local rainfall amounts of 2 inches expected.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4EoZjh7ViPJAN2skEFb2luhDp8pzSJ-rWKmvuxyaVK_V-dhvyDa-s7rTpiOzg3sn_c3e=
yTOdMsgohMNgUMMjQ_YXmo8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   38561744 37751445 36271328 35091363 36261607=20
            37531759=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.