Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2039
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 06 2025 01:06:20

ACUS11 KWNS 060106
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060105=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-060200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2039
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025

Areas affected...portions of far northeast Texas into extreme
southeast Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 060105Z - 060200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe gusts could still occur over the next few
hours.

DISCUSSION...A multicellular cluster has produced at least one
pronounced downburst, with wind damage noted, along with 1+ inch
diameter hail. This complex continues to track north of a zonal
frontal boundary, where 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE resides downstream.
30-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the aforementioned buoyancy
would continue to support severe gusts. However, MLCINH should also
increase with time. The current thinking is that the severe threat
should remain confined to the ongoing complex, where a few strong to
severe gusts may still occur.

...Squitieri/Mosier.. 09/06/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4UDAc-jjj185Wb1KK9NjYJstYqfMNpgdzkJgiJ1_KebnSGxfWjADntKQDiG7kF2KihaDm50rx=
pxg64e8uvR7znM4nhc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33609698 33949595 34049541 34029494 33789473 33479473
            33199507 33109553 33119611 33169669 33609698=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.