Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 06 2025 00:35:18

ACUS01 KWNS 060035
SWODY1
SPC AC 060033

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and a brief tornado
or two remains possible across the Upper Ohio/Tennessee Valleys this
evening.

....OH/TN Valley Region...

Latest satellite and radar imagery suggest a low-amplitude
short-wave trough extends across eastern IL into northwestern TN.
Longer radar loops depict the remnants of a long-lived MCV advancing
ahead of this feature across central IN. The southern influence of
the short wave/MCV appears to be encouraging scattered robust
convection along a frontal zone draped across eastern KY into middle
TN. Locally damaging winds have been noted with some of this
activity and wind should remain the primary concern, though
marginally severe hail is also possible, along with some risk for a
brief tornado or two. While deep-layer shear is not particularly
impressive, adequate flow persists along the frontal zone such that
a severe risk will continue through much of the evening.

Farther southwest along the front into north central TX, isolated
severe thunderstorm has developed along the wind shift, just north
of Dallas. Large hail is likely occurring with this storm that has
supercell characteristics at times. 00z sounding from FWD exhibited
very steep lapse rates through 5km, and 0-6km bulk shear was on the
order of 40kt. Given the steep lapse rate environment, some risk for
hail/wind will continue with any storms along the trailing boundary
into this portion of the southern Plains.

...Darrow.. 09/06/2025

$$

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