Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Sep 05 2025 18:51:15 AWUS01 KWNH 051851 FFGMPD COZ000-NMZ000-060045- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1049 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 250 PM EDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Areas affected...Northern NM & Southern CO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 051850Z - 060045Z SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms containing locally Excessive Rainfall rates may result in flash flooding, especially along sensitive and rugged terrain. DISCUSSION...A broad and weak positively-tilted 200-500mb trough axis is located over the Four Corners region and providing some minor upper-level ascent aloft. Meanwhile, a cold front is tracking south and east through the southern High Plains and into the Front Range of the Rockies. There is some modest ENE low-level flow in wake of the front that is advecting additional moisture into the region, evident in RTMA 6-hr dew point changes that are anywhere from 2-8F higher over eastern NM. In the mid-upper levels, guidance shows a moist 700-400mb column over southern CO and into northern NM that is helping to raise low-level RH values above 80%. This has led to PWATs that are ranging between 0.75-1.0" which are encroaching upon the 90th climatological percentile. Visible satellite imagery also shows most areas west of the Continental Divide have witnessed modest surface-based heating that is supporting 500-1,000 J/kg of SBCAPE per RAP mesoanalysis. These ingredients are fostering a favorable environment for rounds of thunderstorms to develop within a moist and unstable environment that could result in flash flooding this afternoon. In terms of antecedent soil moisture conditions, NASA SPoRT-LIS shows 0-40cm soil moisture guidance has spotty areas of >90th soil moisture percentiles along the Sangre De Cristo Mountains on south to the Sacramento Mountains. Some areas are drier and the thunderstorms will generally provide beneficial rainfall, but between sensitive soils that are saturated in the higher terrain and nearby burn scars, there is a chance these thunderstorms that could generate >1"/hr rainfall rates may result in localized flash flooding through the early evening hours. Mullinax ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4C4Fe8D4q_beQF3kVNdF4_drAWRz6q3Y7D0rdDM9HAufUndX_S5UC7BxKRZIg2EhOVCX= X_oQM2OesLxu4Hxs3GuCONM$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...PUB... ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 37790671 37710581 37130505 35890461 34720475=20 33550522 33500588 33880628 34670638 35470629=20 35570681 34990747 34920791 35170855 35820866=20 37230873 37720843=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .