Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 05 2025 08:34:37

AWUS01 KWNH 050834
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-051229-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1047
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
434 AM EDT Fri Sep 05 2025

Areas affected...southern Nevada, western Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050829Z - 051229Z

Summary...A convective complex should move southward along the
Lower Colorado River Valley for the next few hours.  Spots of 1
inch/hr rain rates were prompting flash flood concerns, and these
trends may continue through 12Z/6a MDT/5a PDT.

Discussion...A convective complex has gained organization across
southeastern Nevada this morning.  It is currently propagating
southward along a moist/unstable axis (1.25+ PW, 500+ J/kg MLCAPE)
that exists along the immediate Lower Colorado River Valley, which
was likely supporting continued and robust updraft development
along the leading edge of the complex.  Ascent from stout
mid-level waves over Utah was also supporting convection, and SPC
mesoanalyses were also suggesting modest enhancement of
low-level/850mb flow/flux into the complex, also supporting its
organization.  Spots of 1-1.25 inch/hr rain rates were being
estimated per MRMS, which was readily exceeding FFG thresholds
across the area.  At least isolated flash flood concerns are
likely between Las Vegas, Mesquite, and along the NV/AZ border in
the near term.

Each of the aforementioned atmospheric factors supporting
organization will also likely support its persistence for a few
hours this morning.  Localized flash flooding is expected with the
complex as it migrates southward from I-15 through Bullhead City
and Kingman, AZ.  Southward persistence beyond that area is
possible, and portions of the CA/AZ border region near Lake Havasu
City may also experience a flash flood threat later this morning
(around 10-11Z).  Lastly, westward backbuilding into the Las Vegas
metro area (supporting urban flash flood potential) cannot be
completely ruled out.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-_tgIwc_uHeHqcr05UVfy1D_JonvcStOwvKTKr9Xd2OLfw-Jm4Rc6asiP7DnF--xDtmP=
u1NgpcNzRuLqPyMBHcFFUxg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   37221598 37091383 36621272 34581256 33721353=20
            33721499 34721569 36301625=20

=3D =3D =3D
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