Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 04 2025 19:30:41

ACUS03 KWNS 041930
SWODY3
SPC AC 041929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST...

....SUMMARY...
Widely scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind
gusts across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on
Saturday.

....Synopsis...
A broad/amplified mid/upper-level trough encompassing much of the
eastern CONUS will shift slightly eastward through the forecast
period, while an accompanying strong upper-level jet advances
northeastward across Quebec. In the low-levels, a related
north-south-oriented cold front will move eastward across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon.

....Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic...
Ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, diurnal heating/
destabilization of a moist boundary layer (middle/upper 60s to lower
70s dewpoints) will contribute to a corridor of moderate
surface-based buoyancy (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) from the Mid-Atlantic
into the Northeast -- despite poor midlevel lapse rates. Diurnal
heating and related buoyancy may be limited with northward extent
owing to increased cloud coverage near the right-entrance region of
the upper-level jet. As the front intercepts the
destabilizing/uncapped pre-convective air mass, widely scattered
thunderstorms should develop along/immediately ahead of the front
during the afternoon. Around 35-45 kt of front-parallel effective
shear will support a mix of loosely organized convective bands and
clusters. Given the enhanced deep-layer unidirectional flow and
steepening low-level lapse rates, damaging wind gusts will be
possible with the stronger storms into the evening. Depending on the
degree of destabilization over parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the
Northeast, an eventual upgrade may be warranted.

...Weinman.. 09/04/2025

$$

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