Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 04 2025 08:39:52

AWUS01 KWNH 040839
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-041338-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1045
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
439 AM EDT Thu Sep 04 2025

Areas affected...portions of Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040838Z - 041338Z

Summary...A few spots of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates have materialized
near/east of Owensboro over the past hour.  Isolated flash flood
potential could materialize as the convection reaches
central/eastern portions of the state.

Discussion...Latest radar mosaic imagery depicts areas of training
convection across northern Kentucky near/east of Owensboro.=20
Localized training has led to rain rates exceeding 2 inches/per
(estimated per MRMS).  The training storms have materialized amid
strong forcing aloft, with vigorous mid-level waves rotating
through the base of a larger-scale trough over Indiana and
Illinois.  Furthermore, strong 850mb flow has maintained enough
low-level flux of moisture/instability into the region to maintain
around 500 J/kg MLCAPE amid low 60s F dewpoints.  The orientation
of convergence and cell development (with storms repeatedly
deepening along a surface front near Owensboro and moving quickly
eastward) is favoring areas of training.

The axis of heaviest rainfall is occurring over relatively dry
ground conditions from a lack of rain over the past couple weeks.
Eventually, training convection will reach areas of eastern
Kentucky that have been wetter and are more susceptible to flash
flooding.  Instability profiles are expected to gradually
destabilize downstream (per RAP/SPC mesoanalyses), which should
maintain convection downstream while providing opportunity for
continued training and spots of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates.  These
rates may exceed FFG thresholds on a localized basis, providing a
brief window for isolated flash flooding through 13Z/9a EDT.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4PfDzxgmbur0cI0aCVnOyKznsahmvM4kLSvgTRWwOAIyLcsaBg9jmazPZykY-l8cgBqo=
770ZI9eZbWvJmUmdWhnV7BA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   38168424 37908306 37228262 36588439 37008639=20
            38138586=20

=3D =3D =3D
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