Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Sep 03 2025 05:38:30 ACUS01 KWNS 030538 SWODY1 SPC AC 030536 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. ....Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... At mid-levels, heights will fall over much of the central U.S., as a low moves southward toward the western Great Lakes and as a shortwave trough moves through the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence near the front will support scattered thunderstorm development along the northern edge of the stronger instability this afternoon. These storms will become organized and move south-southeastward across central and eastern Kansas, and western Missouri during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis across east-central Kansas late this afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, with steep lapse rates in the low to mid-levels. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be near 45 knots, due to a combination of speed shear and directional shear from the surface to about 600 mb. This environment will support large hail with supercells. Moderate deep-layer shear and mid-level lapse rates near 7.5 C/km will support a potential for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter with the more intense updrafts. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible with supercells, or with bowing line segments that develop out of merging cells. The severe threat is expected to persist into the mid evening, as several small clusters move southeastward into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. ...Broyles/Thornton.. 09/03/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .