Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 01 2025 02:28:25

AWUS01 KWNH 010228
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-010630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1042
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1027 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Areas affected...Far Southern OK...North-Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010227Z - 010630Z

SUMMARY...Additional slow-moving and locally training areas of
heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through
midnight across portions of southern OK and north-central TX,
including portions of the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area.
Urban flash flooding in particular will continue to be a concern
in the near-term.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows slow-moving clusters
of heavy showers and thunderstorms across portions of far southern
OK and north-central TX, including the Dallas-Fort Worth
metropolitan area where more recently there has been some
cell-training noted along with reports of flash flooding.

The convection is largely being driven by proximity of a weak area
of low pressure and a surface trough which is helping to focus
small scale areas of favorable low-level moisture convergence
within a moderately unstable airmass characterized by MLCAPE
values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg. PWs are generally on the order of
1.75 to 2 inches, which coupled with the instability is helping to
drive rainfall rates of up to 2 to 3 inches/hour with the stronger
storms.

Some of the 18Z HREF and recent HRRR guidance suggests some
localized persistence of the convective threat going through
midnight, with locally an additional 3 to 4 inches of rain
possible in close proximity to this weak area of low pressure
which is nearly stationary.

As a result, additional areas of flash flooding will be possible
over the next few hours, and especially for the urban corridors
around the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6ERzaNTAHLFG5BlVXLZDSF835s0mhsyLYw_r0JLHuGzhacm85Jt-ayEMJqOmPp8fXKqR=
xpfumN8ed_QfgVnEXw2HyXc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   34479577 34029533 33039544 32279617 32219710=20
            32629778 33609801 34259755 34339663=20

=3D =3D =3D
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