Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 01 2025 00:07:23

AWUS01 KWNH 010007
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-010430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1041
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
806 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Areas affected...portions of south and west Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010006Z - 010430Z

Summary...Flash flood potential should linger for a few more hours
- especially where instability continues to support new,
slow-moving convection.

Discussion...Earlier convection across central Texas and the Hill
Country has evolved into a slow-moving complex currently near the
San Antonio Metro area.  Enough downstream instability exists for
cells to continue to produce areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates.=20
These cells will continue to move southward over the next couple
hours while producing locally heavy rainfall over urbanized areas.
 Excessive runoff/flash flood potential remains a distinct
possibility with this activity through 02Z/9p CDT.

Upstream, a large area of relatively stable air as developed
across the Hill Country due to prior convection.  A few areas
farther west (from near Midland southward to the Big Bend area)
have still yet to stabilize, however, and deep, slow-moving
convection continues to exhibit an uptick per radar mosaic and
satellite imagery. Areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates remain likely
beneath the stronger and more persistent convection, and these
rates should threaten local FFG thresholds that are as low as
1-1.5 inch/hr.  Isolated flash flood potential continues -
especially in low-lying/sensitive areas.

Eventually, storms should exhibit a slow weakening trend with loss
of surface heating, although weak/subtle mid-level waves should
provide enough ascent for locally heavy rainfall to persist
perhaps through 05Z/midnight CDT. where convective overturning has
not led to low-level stabilization.

Flash flooding remains possible across the area through 04-05Z.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_GLJXiunUX-ITyF353IcS69a7KavcWCvu-jriG0IDE6rllJBXybg_DSjV0ixnLnC9wRI=
xSZOHmUvgdOQVuJaUm7HRFc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   32080276 31760178 30830060 30029904 29749730=20
            28869750 28439976 28820068 29670205 29590288=20
            29880397 30980453 31840402=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.