Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 31 2025 08:03:10

AWUS01 KWNH 310803
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-311230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1036
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Areas affected...Eastern NM...Far Western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310800Z - 311230Z

SUMMARY...Additional broken clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms going through the early morning hours may continue
to pose an isolated threat for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery along with
radar shows a few broken clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms continuing to settle gradually down to the south
across mainly the open plains of eastern NM and a small part of
western TX.

The convection is still be driven by a couple of smaller scale
corridors of favorable moisture convergence along with some
lingering instability. The latest MUCAPE values across eastern NM
are still as high as 1000 J/kg in spots. This coupled with some
modest right-entrance region upper-level jet support may tend to
sustain these convective clusters at least going into the early
morning hours.

Rainfall rates may reach as high as 1.5 inches/hour with the
stronger storms, and with relatively slow cell-motions, there may
be a few localized rainfall amounts reaching upwards of 2 to 3
inches. This may support an isolated threat for some additional
flash flooding. However, this threat should diminish early this
morning as the remaining instability continues to wane.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!84GGkr52-rZCCmaNbsroIxBdsH8yuGaSJHrzhwiF5I31zs1L1hUWUxbModLsTgLlukcW=
fey-dFtudbowEU-qxIOG7UA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   35060355 34710303 34010270 33000265 32230307=20
            31980407 32250505 32880536 33990527 34630479=20
            34950428=20

=3D =3D =3D
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