Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 30 2025 00:29:48

AWUS01 KWNH 300029
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-300328-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1028
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
829 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Areas affected...southern New Mexico, far southeastern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300028Z - 300328Z

Summary...Low-end/isolated flash flood potential continues for a
few more hours.

Discussion...Deep convection has materialized over the course of
the afternoon and produced isolated spots of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain
rates at times.  Short-term trends indicate widespread convective
overturning that has stabilized the low-level airmass in most
areas.  Despite stabilization, several areas of thunderstorms
continue across south-central New Mexico (near the Sacramento
Mountains) and along far northern Mexico (potentially drifting
northward toward the AZ/NM international border area over the next
1-2 hours).  The pre-convective airmass supporting convection
continues to be moist and unstable, with 1-1.4 inch PW values and
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE to support deep convection and isolated flash
flood potential.

With time, low-levels are expected to further stabilize with loss
of surface heating.  The flash flood threat (already isolated)
should also progressively lower with time as well.  Most of the
threat should wane after 03Z or so.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8PncgyjeCZUkzyhRcMLqq7-naG5LnudJFl3sCWD6hhkJ_PVIguIUh5DdivP0NTdAwjaH=
P58-HRYaMY-l4Xjzg_AVFlg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   34880638 34060439 32730448 31990655 31780811=20
            31400826 31281094 32101067 32940896 34200780=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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