Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 29 2025 20:04:47

AWUS01 KWNH 292004
FFGMPD
FLZ000-300203-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1026
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 292003Z - 300203Z

Summary...Isolated/urban flash flooding is possible through the
afternoon and early evening.

Discussion...Recent satellite/lightning imagery depicts rapid
development of deep convection along a sea breeze boundary just
west of Miami (near Kendall), with additional, scattered activity
located over the Everglades.  The cells were forming in an
environment characterized by strong instability (2000+ J/kg
MLCAPE) and plenteous moisture content (1.8+ inch PW values).=20
These environmental parameters - combined with weak/negligible
tropospheric flow for steering) was promoting ongoing development.
 The cell near Kendall was already producing estimated 1-2 inch/hr
rain rates, which isn't a surprise given its slow movement amid
abundant moisture/instability.

Models/CAMs suggest that ongoing development will continue to
expand in coverage an intensity given continued
heating/destabilization along the sea breeze, which was located
just inland along populated areas of southeastern Florida.=20
Additional areas of 1+ inch/hr rain rates are expected, which
could result in flash flooding in urban and low-lying areas.  Much
of the flash flood risk should be diurnally driven, with weakening
expected from both 1) loss of surface heating and 2) stabilization
from scattered to widespread convective overturning across the
discussion area.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4P9wSE9JUPm8UY_UWf3nZX8jBI-M5PpiYTrkvqv0xeYUGZUKYiGm0MsV_E2dHifisuAy=
pOEoph6st-iCS1W817vzuOA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   27628039 27268000 27177995 26617995 25958006=20
            25228030 24968060 25218080 25858069 27208048=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.