Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 29 2025 18:29:45

AWUS01 KWNH 291829
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-300028-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1025
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
228 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Areas affected...New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 291828Z - 300028Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential should expand/increase
though 00Z/6p MDT this afternoon.

Discussion...Satellite and radar depict isolated thunderstorm
development primarily along favored ridgelines/high terrain from
southern/southwestern through north-central New Mexico.  The
storms have formed due to abundant surface heating beneath a
pronounced mid-level moisture plume across western and central
parts of the state.  Flow aloft (strongest over the western parts
of the state) were supporting slow northeastward storm motions
with developing activity, although localized backbuilding was
already noted across south-central and southwestern New Mexico.=20
Where the backbuilding has been most pronounced (east of
Alamogordo), rain rates approaching 2 inches/hr have been
estimated per MRMS.

Given appreciable moisture values, weak mid-level disturbances,
and continued surface heating, conditions favor an expansion of
convective coverage through the afternoon and early evening hours
across the discussion area.  Any downpours near existing burn
scars could promote a quickly evolving and locally significant
flash flood threat.  Areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates are likely to
expand in tandem with increasing convective coverage, and the
highest rain rates are likely across the southeastern 1/2 of the
state where steering flow aloft is the weakest and tropospheric
moisture content highest.

Wind profiles across northeastern/east-central New Mexico favor
eventual growth into slow-moving clusters of storms that may
prompt a slightly higher concentration of flash flood instances
over time.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_uJyp8RiiukATBXTgTjKeysUvouAANFSkFCZeONY0yCsSzC-eqw4XmMWyhlzKHLM50d_=
Ur0SXdxLzu-Fl0M9yM_9x70$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   36700397 34410338 32000454 31840694 31790910=20
            33840879 36660668=20

=3D =3D =3D
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