Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 29 2025 18:14:15

AWUS01 KWNH 291814
FFGMPD
LAZ000-292111-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1024
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
213 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Areas affected...southern Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291811Z - 292111Z

Summary...Brief/isolated flash flooding is possible across
southern Louisiana through 4p CDT/21Z.

Discussion...Over the last hour or so, a mesoscale convective
complex near Baton Rouge has increased in intensity while
migrating slowly southward.  Additional cells were developing from
this complex southwestward toward Lake Charles, Lafayette, and
along I-10.  These cells were migrating toward an abundantly
moist/unstable pre-convective airmass (2.3+ inch PW values, 3500
J/kg SBCAPE), supporting strong updrafts and efficient rainfall
rates within the most persistent activity.  Despite southward
motions, areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates have been estimated per
MRMS near the Baton Rouge area.  These rates may be enough to
support an isolated flash flood risk especially near urban/flash
flood prone areas across southern Louisiana.

Models/observations are all suggestive of a continued, yet slow
southward progression of the ongoing activity toward the Gulf
Coast through 4p CDT/21Z.  Some of the heavier rain rates may
impact western portions of New Orleans Metro during that
timeframe.  Flash flooding could occur with ongoing activity, but
should be isolated and focused on urban/sensitive areas.  Areas of
1-2 inch/hr rain rates should continue, with higher rates/rainfall
totals possible near any localized areas of training/cell mergers.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_Zvkj-bUelgq3vwpm450SXtdlVxH7rveg9xI80KKeO097j4G-jNR2S31u7uSgiC3_RUe=
ksU96Cba7uhXLuKarbBdUbE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   30489171 30419035 29918921 29318911 29059006=20
            29149166 29609308 30209320=20

=3D =3D =3D
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