Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Aug 28 2025 19:44:55 ACUS01 KWNS 281944 SWODY1 SPC AC 281943 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX... ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated hail and severe wind threat, are possible across parts of southern Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Arklatex this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms will also be possible across eastern Colorado and the adjacent High Plains. ....20Z Update... Based on current observations and convective trends, changes were made to the general thunderstorm forecast. The Slight risk in the ArkLaTex vicinity was also trimmed behind ongoing convection. The remainder of the forecast remains on track. Additional information is found in the previous discussion below. ...Wendt.. 08/28/2025 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025/ ....Southern Oklahoma/North Texas to ArkLaTex... Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing from central/eastern OK southeastward across northern/central AR and into northern/central MS. This area of precipitation is occurring along and north of a warm-front-like boundary that extends from the TX Panhandle southeastward through south-central OK into northeast TX. General expectation is for the ongoing storms to persist throughout the day, supported mainly by modest mid-level southwesterlies and associated warm-air advection across the boundary. Additionally, this boundary will likely sharpen throughout the day as the precipitation/cloudiness continue north of the boundary, and warm/moist conditions persist south of the boundary. The ongoing elevated storms across southeast OK will likely continue southeastward, likely resulting in a small corridor where diurnal heating is possible in the vicinity of the warm front, but ahead of the slowly progressing outflow moving across central/south-central OK. This heating of the moist airmass in place could result in a corridor of moderate to strong buoyancy, despite relatively warm temperatures aloft and poor lapse rates. This buoyancy coupled with moderate deep-layer vertical shear provided by the moderate northwesterly flow aloft could result in a few strong and organized updrafts. Given current trends, a reintensification of cells along the outflow appears to be the most likely convective evolution, with the resulting linear mode favoring damaging gusts as the primary risk. That being said, given continued low-level moisture convergence near the warm front, more discrete development ahead of the outflow is also a possibility. Any more discrete storms could become supercellular, with a low-probability risk for a tornado and/or hail, particularly near the surface boundary. Additional development is possible this afternoon along the western edge of the outflow across southwest OK and the TX Big Country/Low Rolling Plains. A few stronger storms capable of damaging gusts are possible in these areas. ....Central High Plains... Low-level upslope flow is expected to contribute to scattered thunderstorm development the as boundary layer heats across the central High Plains later this afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow atop low-level easterlies will result in around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear, which is strong enough to support organized storm structures. This activity will spread southeastward towards the lower terrain over time, with an attendant risk for isolated severe hail and gusty winds. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .