Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Aug 26 2025 01:59:12 AWUS01 KWNH 260159 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-260757- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1005 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 957 PM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Areas affected...Central and Southern CO...Central and Northern NM...TX Panhandle Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 260157Z - 260757Z SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and concentrate across portions of central and southern CO into northern and central NM. This will especially include the higher terrain of the Sangre De Cristo Range and adjacent areas of the High Plains. Scattered to numerous areas of flash flooding are expected tonight. DISCUSSION...The early evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows an expansive area of very cold-topped convection impacting areas of southern CO and especially central to northeast NM as heavy showers and thunderstorms interact with the higher terrain of the Sangre De Cristo Range along with favorable upslope flow. A corridor of MLCAPE values reaching 500 to 1000+ J/kg continue to be focused over north-central and northeast NM, with a separate axis of instability also still seen over parts of southeast CO. The environment remains very moist with PWs near 2 standard deviations above normal. This coupled with highly favorable orographic forcing/ascent and subtle mid-level vort energy dropping southeast across the central Rockies should favor additional concentrated areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms over the next several hours. The recent satellite and radar trends along with the last several runs of the experimental WoFS guidance would suggest northeast NM will be the primary focus for the heaviest rainfall amounts. This is where more favorable easterly low-level upslope flow into the terrain along with interaction with a stationary front will be noted. Greater instability in this area too should tend favor this area seeing the heaviest rainfall rates which is further supported by some of the very cold convective cloud tops currently over the region. Rainfall rates with the stronger storms may be capable of reaching 2 inches/hour, and with the persistent upslope flow and frontal convergence, some additional rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches will be possible. By later in the night, some of these heavier rains over northeast NM should begin to edge out into the TX Panhandle area which is strongly supported by the latest WoFS guidance. Scattered to numerous areas of flash flooding are generally expected, and especially over northeast NM where the heaviest totals should focus. Some locally significant impacts cannot be ruled out which may locally include sensitive burn scar locations. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!57uYAAIHBw_igN2z_cY9bvwL-kp0N83T1IorXzGeoUX7BSi49Mlolm9b_jQcNijREk9W= nSyuLqmd9TPFr_wfGMwHztk$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...GJT...LUB...PUB... ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 39300478 38880387 38250352 36830313 36120235=20 35730073 35120039 34490124 34360351 34060485=20 34120636 34430722 35260750 36450676 37490671=20 38540640 39150583=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .