Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 25 2025 06:37:01

AWUS01 KWNH 250636
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-251200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0998
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025

Areas affected...much of west-central KS into adjacent portions of
CO/NE/OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250635Z - 251200Z

Summary...Training showers and thunderstorms likely to result in
localized 3"+ rainfall totals, isolated to scattered instances of
flash flooding.

Discussion...Convection has proliferated over the past couple of
hours across portions of the western Central Plains, tapping into
elevated instability with cloud bases in the vicinity of 850-700
mb. While MUCAPE generally ranges from 250-750 J/kg (per SPC
mesoanalysis), there is likely compensation from slantwise
instability as isentropic upglide along the 305K surface has
increased significantly with the veering low-level jet over the
past several hours (with southwesterly flow of 15-20 kts becoming
oriented perpendicular to isobars). The mesoscale environment is
otherwise characterized highly anomalous tropospheric moisture
content (PWs of 1.3-1.8 inches, between the 90th percentile and
max moving average, per LBF and DDC sounding climatology) and deep
layer (0-6 km) shear of 20-40 kts (on the periphery of the
right-entrance region of a ~120 kt jet streak over the Mid-MS
Valley within northwest flow and embedded shortwave/vorticity
maxima in the mid-levels).

While soils are relatively dry across the region (per NASA
SPoRT-LIS soil moisture in the 0-1m layer generally at or below
the 10th percentile), too much rainfall too quickly could lead to
instances of flash flooding through the overnight. Localized
training and repeating of cells are possible across all of the
highlighted region, as northwest flow directs backbuilding
convection from northwest to southeast over many of the same
localities. Hi-res models (00z HREF suite) indicate the greatest
odds for localized 3"+ totals (40-km neighborhood probs for 3"
exceedance of 40-60%) in the vicinity of Dodge City, KS and points
east and southeast, where instability is maximized (MUCAPE 500+
J/kg) and the greatest coverage of convective cells are already
occurring. As 6-hr FFGs (Flash Flood Guidance) are locally as low
as 2.0" in this area (with the bulk of the region near or below
3.0"), isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are
considered likely.

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6WaEPkqWcssgTag046hZMqGzfOjbjyU1C1Ax20MiPM3m1rQNZ-pHqKdQG1Rn3OtPODel=
kjcoDmvtb5ZAtcotb9dM9JM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...BOU...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   40640209 40520109 40000016 39239901 38059828=20
            37039741 36169756 35949847 36169951 36580016=20
            37260083 38480145 39160248 39660322 40110344=20
            40500323=20

=3D =3D =3D
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