Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 24 2025 22:56:21

AWUS01 KWNH 242256
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-250345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0994
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
655 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Areas affected...Northern PA...Southern and Central NY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242255Z - 250345Z

SUMMARY...A few bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms may be
capable of locally training over the same area this evening. This
coupled with high rainfall rates may yield at least an isolated
threat of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front
gradually making progress into the northern Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast as an upper-level trough digs across the Great Lakes and
OH Valley. The airmass ahead of this cold front is moderately
unstable with MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg, and is
seasonably moist with PWs of 1.3 to 1.5 inches.

This coupled with some relatively strong moisture convergence
along the front and favorable upper-level forcing/divergence
should support multiple bands of rather heavy showers and
thunderstorms across portions of northern PA through southern and
central NY through this evening.

Radar imagery already shows a couple of linearly oriented bands
showing some organization and exhibiting some cell-training
characteristics across portions of southern NY. There is some
modest effective bulk shear in place that should tend to favor at
least some broken multicell bands of convection through
mid-evening until the cold front can advance more progressively
through the area.

Rainfall rates with the current activity are locally on the order
of 1 to 2 inches/hour, and the 18Z HREF along with recent HRRR
solutions suggest sufficient levels of cell-training to foster
some 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals through mid-evening.

These rains will foster concerns for some isolated areas of flash
flooding as a result.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_W973_JMzr2W0xBo715b_hikk-hyKh6CcxGc2m1_OC5nL1xIT36LS76A2Q2lnV0tdW4B=
rHoSgkGnels1PH3gjGQ9C4A$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BTV...BUF...CTP...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON   43927422 43557384 42897442 42077568 41567649=20
            41307740 41597771 42607664 43777503=20

=3D =3D =3D
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