Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 24 2025 19:45:50

AWUS01 KWNH 241945
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-250045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0993
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Areas affected...Southern CO...Northern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241945Z - 250045Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms developing and expanding
in coverage across southern CO and northern NM will pose a threat
for isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding going into the
early evening hours. The area burn scar locations and normally dry
washes will be most susceptible to impacts.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is well underway across the
high country of southern CO and down into northern NM, with
locally heavy shower and thunderstorm activity in particular
beginning to focus over and near the Sangre De Cristo Range.

MLCAPE values along the CO/NM border have locally increased to
over 1000 J/kg and this coupled with deeper layer concentrations
of monsoonal moisture and orographic ascent near the terrain
should favor an additional expansion of convection over the next
several hours.

Facilitating some of the convective potential today will also be
proximity of a well-defined mid-level vort center over northwest
NM which should drift slowly off to the east over the next several
hours. This energy coupled with the orographic nature of the
convection may foster some smaller scale enhancement to the
convection with locally enhanced rainfall totals.

Rainfall rates of as much as 1 to 2 inches/hour are generally
expected with the stronger convective cells, and with relatively
slow cell-motions, there may be some totals by early this evening
of 2 to 3+ inches. These rains will foster concerns for isolated
to scattered areas of flash flooding, and primarily involving the
more sensitive burn scar locations and normally dry washes.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9yF0FLyYFMlGe97an5m30LV4NHo2pw7X0zCWYuwPoVYlwxEIbZOU85ttYZTOBB_Jz9HO=
d7bpl-XUAotofkyvlHriDSQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38140516 37750444 36600454 35370516 34920608=20
            34830704 34960828 35360889 35850909 36620910=20
            36960875 37070724 37490622 37800571=20

=3D =3D =3D
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