Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 24 2025 18:42:59

AWUS01 KWNH 241842
FFGMPD
COZ000-UTZ000-250041-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0990
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
242 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Areas affected...eastern Utah, western Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241841Z - 250041Z

Summary...Robust convective development is occurring ahead of a
weak disturbance over northeastern Utah.  Areas of rain rates
reaching 1 inch/hr are possible.  Flash flooding could occur -
especially near burn scars and other low-lying, sensitive areas.

Discussion...Recent radar/satellite imagery depicts a localized
areas of robust thunderstorm development near/just south of
Meeker, CO.  The storms are being supporting by 1) a quickly
destabilizing airmass (around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE), 2) anomalously
moist PW values (near 1 inch), and ascent from a weak mid-level
disturbance over northeastern UT/southwestern WY.  Mean wind
fields aloft are fairly weak, allowing ongoing convection to
exhibit only slow eastward motions.  Meanwhile, ground conditions
are supporting runoff with only 0.5-1.0 inch/hr FFG thresholds
and, with burn scars noted across the region representing enhanced
runoff potential.

Most of the convection across the discussion area should be
diurnally driven today. Convective coverage will continue to
increase through peak heating hours, and slow movement/cell
mergers should all support local FFG exceedance/1 inch/hr rain
rates at times beneath the deepest convection.  The flash flood
risk should be highest near burn scars and
low-lying/terrain-favored areas.  Flash flood potential should
persist through at least 00Z/6p MDT this evening on an isolated
basis.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-XgB761n-7HR79fQWmNLHDJ5Tt41fnz3IYepC3Bp4ZcpBm6IeBn7hq9Bh296IYQQiH2E=
1JfK9kXDWOLKE7BDM3Z9Sic$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...GJT...PUB...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   40670853 40630674 39770585 38630573 37630593=20
            37090752 37291008 38661082 40160981=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.