Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Resent 3 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Aug 24 2025 12:52:57 ACUS01 KWNS 241252 SWODY1 SPC AC 241251 Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 3 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... A few severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening across the south-central High Plains spanning eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe storms are also possible across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ....South-central High Plains.. Within an amplified upper flow regime, a moderately strong belt of northwesterly winds aloft will exist over the region, with one or more low-amplitude ridge-peripheral disturbances expected to pivot eastward later today over the central Rockies. A pronounced surface anticyclone will settle into the northern Plains, forcing the leading edge of more continental air into the southern Plains by the end of the period. A corridor of low-level warm advection will become established from southern Wyoming into western Oklahoma coincident with the northwest/southeast-oriented front. Widely scattered generally non-severe elevated storms will probably persist this morning across western Kansas, with some potential that the storms may help focus some renewed/increasing convective potential later today from southwest Kansas into western Oklahoma/eastern Texas Panhandle. Aided by increasing low-level upslope flow, other potentially severe storms are expected to develop across the Colorado Front Range vicinity by late afternoon and drift southeastward through early/mid-evening. A couple of supercells will initially be possible, before storms tend to cluster by evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary concerns regionally, although current thinking is that overall potential should remain relatively isolated. ....Northeast including New York/Pennsylvania... A prominent upper-level trough over Ontario/Quebec and Great Lakes will shift eastward today. An associated surface front is forecast to advance into western portions of New York/Pennsylvania by early afternoon. Modest boundary-layer heating is expected to aid destabilization ahead of the front and convective temperatures should be breached by around 20-21z; although, deep-layer lapse rates are not expected to be particularly steep (0-6 km values around 6.5 C/km). These storms could generate locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail, with the main risk from mid-afternoon into early evening. ...Guyerkerr.. 08/24/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .